New York Times Upshot - The Times/Siena polls are roughly in line with recent poll averages in Minnesota and Wisconsin, but reflect tighter races in Nevada and New Hampshire, which have seen fewer polls this summer — especially in Nevada. We decided pretty quickly—maybe even during our first meeting—that we didn't want to go to Nate's place.
Nate has an unusual skill, in a good way. Not only that, but 2012 was not going to repeat itself. Most likely, there will be no new elections held as they are. Trying to rekindle that lightning in a bottle when other people—including Nate—were going to do it just didn't feel right.
New York Times Upshot
The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has its own deficit reduction plan. But it won't balance the budget in 10 years. The plan includes spending cuts in every budget line and new taxes. It would roughly cut the deficit in half by 2032, an amount the group said was acceptable because it would stabilize the ratio between the federal debt and the economy as a whole.
Mixing Cuts And Tax Increases
The reason for this was the departure of Nate Silver. Nate left and I was known internally as Nate's champion. I was kind of the obvious person who was put on the committee to decide what to do after he was gone.
NEW YORK--( BUSINESS WIRE )--The New York Times (NYTimes.com) today launched a new political website, The Upshot (NYTimes.com/upshot), designed to help readers better navigate the news through graphics and technology. . Voters were contacted by mobile phones and landlines.
The interviewers asked for the person registered in the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish in counties where at least 10 percent of registered voters were Hispanic according to L2 data.
Mr. McCarthy is asking Democrats to make budget concessions while using the levers of a possible default on the debt and service obligations. But right now, he's not specifically talking about balancing the budget or Social Security and Medicare.
Ways To Balance The Budget Through Tax Increases Alone
Five years ago today, The New York Times introduced The Upshot to explore politics, policy and everyday life in a new way. We wanted to experiment with formats using whatever combination of text, data visualization, images, and interactive features seemed best for the topic at hand.
These two programs are very popular, and cutting them would lead to political risks. President Biden drew Republican praise and shouts of dishonesty in his State of the Union address when he said they wanted to cut Medicare and Social Security, even though some of them had suggested it.
And Medicare and Social Security aren't the only popular programs. In 2019, the Pew Research Center surveyed Americans about which parts of the budget they think should be bigger, about the same, or smaller. The majority opposed the cuts in almost all sectors.
Most Americans wanted more government spending on social security, education, infrastructure, environmental protection and scientific research. The area of the budget where the public supports the most cuts is aid to the poor abroad. Still, only 28 percent said the U.S. government should spend less money and that foreign aid would make up just 1 percent of the federal budget over the next decade.
So What Would It Take To Balance The Federal Budget In A Decade?
Edited by Pulitzer Prize winner and former New York Times Washington Bureau Chief David Leonhardt, The Upshot provides in-depth coverage and analysis to help readers deepen their understanding of key issues. Graphics and interactive elements created by The Times' award-winning graphics staff are central to The Upshot's work.
Even many conservative economists do not see a balanced budget as an important goal in maintaining a strong economy. Many suggest focusing instead on maintaining a stable relationship between the debt and the size of the economy over time—arguing that higher federal debt can be sustained if the economy also grows.
The following articles weren't always the biggest hit with readers (although some certainly were), and they didn't necessarily win journalism awards (although some did). What they have in common is that, in the subjective opinion of our team, they have helped people better understand the world by shedding light on important recent trends.
When we think of work that is very "resulting", these are the references that most often come to mind. The exact categories used for weighting may vary from survey to survey, depending on the availability of voter file data or the importance of weighting interactions between two weighting items, such as region and party, race and education.
Why describe how a Fed rate hike will affect the economy when you can create a room-sized Rube Goldberg machine? Which presidential candidate's speech has the most in common with this literary classic? Can you tell me how long a food craze's transition from obscurity to obscurity counts for its appearances in the Times archives?
Many of these links answered the odd question or dealt with a traditional topic in a unique way. Here's hoping The Result stays at least partially weird for years to come. Personally, I find it fascinating, I don't place any particular emotional weight in favor of one point one way or the other, and I commend the Times for taking such pains to reveal the inner workings of what usually boils down to a plus sign and a natural number.
Voters in Minnesota and Wisconsin, two states that have faced police brutality and the summer of protests that followed, said they trust Biden to do a better job on race relations, protests and violent crime, despite Trump's recent attempts to paint him.
as an ally of anarchy and violence. Mr. McCarthy recently said he does not want to cut defense spending, health care or Social Security -- or raise taxes. These constraints mean that cuts to the rest of the budget have to be brutal.
Leonhardt also noted that the new site "will be integrated into the news department. I really want us to work with other Times editors—national, political, academic staff—who are interested in this kind of journalism. We're not divided."
News professionals have spent countless hours figuring out what makes something popular, and while there are no easy answers, what we all have in common is that many of these stories are about identity: where we come from, what we eat, how we speak.
, for example. Democrats in Congress and the White House aren't just opposed to balancing the budget; many oppose deficit reduction as a priority, pointing to the stability of federal bonds and the human benefits that government spending on poverty prevention, health care, and infrastructure brings to American lives.
Another project is an interactive forecasting model that analyzes each Senate race in the 2014 midterm elections based on polling, fundraising data, political history and other factors. According to the model, Democrats have improved their chances of retaining the Senate in recent weeks.
While Republicans were slight favorites for several weeks, making this campaign now a toss-up, Democrats have the slimmest of edges. Upshot publishes all the information and codes of its model and hopes for feedback from readers and experts.
Under Leonhardt's leadership, The Upshot's team of editors, graphic editors, economists, political scientists and writers is a mix of seasoned Times reporters, along with a host of newcomers and contributors: editors Laura Chung and Damon Darlin;
graphic editors Amanda Cox, Kevin Quiley and Josh Katz; reporters Josh Barro, Claire Kane Miller, Nate Cohn, Neil Irwin and Derek Willis; photo editor Darcy Evely; Senior Clerk Nadiya Taha; copy editors Tony Monkovich and Kathleen Flynn;
and Marjorie Connelly, Megan T-Brennan, Allison Kopicki and Dalia Sussman of the New York Times Polling Group. The Upshot's first-day stories include two significant pieces of business journalism. Income trends are compared across different parts of the income spectrum—rich, middle class, and poor—in different countries, including the United States, Canada, and major European countries.
The analysis - some of the first publicly available data of its kind - finds that the American middle class is no longer the richest in the world, but lags behind the Canadian middle class. The poor in most of Europe now have higher incomes than the poor in the United States.
Federal deficits are expected to be so large over the next decade that about $16 trillion in spending cuts or new revenue will be needed to balance the budget by 2033. That's roughly the size of the entire Social Security program.
Or the entire Medicare program in addition to every anti-poverty program and refundable tax credit. These surprising examples are taken from the committee's recent analysis. In recent years, The Upshot has taught us about the difference between Twitter Democrats and real Democratic voters, the extent of racism against black boys, how your community treats others in the United States, the god-forsaken night needle before the election, your opponent.
work (reporters - physics) and more. Today, in honor of the site's fifth birthday, the Times has compiled its hit Upshots into one page, highlighting both the team's favorites and the most read: Most of the center's significant savings will come from domestic spending cuts, including the repeal and expansion of the Affordable Care Act.
health care coverage. I. It also relies heavily on aggressive economic growth projections that lack historical support. These assumptions, which differ from the basic budget plans used by most other research groups, allow the group to break even without having to look for as many savings.
How it works: FiveThirtyEight's poll estimates are calculated by analyzing each polling organization's historical polling accuracy as well as its methods. Accuracy estimates are adjusted for the type of election being voted on, the size of the poll's sample, the performance of other polls that study the same race, and other factors.
We also calculate measures of statistical bias in studies. When a pollster publishes multiple versions of the same poll (for example, versions with or without third-party candidates), FiveThirtyEight uses the average of the different versions to calculate the pollster's score.
However, all versions of these queries are listed here. Read more » So when a candidate takes the first hours of leadership after the polls close, is it real or an artifact of where the early votes came from?
If you know the historical data of certain districts—how they've voted Democrat or Republican in the past—and can make a reasonable estimate of turnout, you can read those numbers. ("Our adjusted projections are based solely on current and historical results. They do not use exit poll data or projections from Senate models.") Smart analysts have always done this;
now readers can see it in real time, not just as one-off anecdotal commentary. Very clever. "If they don't pay attention to Medicare, Medicaid and federal health care programs in general, that's fundamentally stupid," said Mr. Winfrey, now distinguished fellow for economic policy and public leadership at the conservative Heritage Foundation.
Special features of The Upshot include scoreboard-like data visualizations updated in real time that give readers a way to understand important and complex national issues, such as midterm campaigns, and Presidential Historian Michael Beschloss' column HistorySource, which takes readers back in time with photos and documents from significant moments in history.
Upshot focuses on politics, policy, and the economy, with a special emphasis on the 2014 election, the state of the economy, financial mobility, and health care. In addition, the site deals with education, traffic, climate and other issues, and occasionally writes about sports and culture.
Balancing the budget without raising taxes or cutting spending on the military, medicare or Social Security would mean cutting the rest of the budget by as much as 70 percent. Cuts of this magnitude would mean layoffs of most federal workers in agencies such as the FBI, Park Service and State Department, as well as massive cuts in food assistance and military pensions.
The Congressional Budget Office maintains a list of more than 100 strategies that can reduce the deficit. His list included several options that could generate significant revenue, including a consumption tax similar to those levied by most European governments, higher income and payroll tax rates, and a new carbon tax, which he favored to many environmental groups.
The magnitude of this relationship is still debated. But if the current trend continues, the debt will grow much faster than the economy as a whole, especially with the recent rise in interest rates. Whether and how it will change depends as much on politics as on mathematics.
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